21 April, 2010A report by Vadim Borisov, IMF Regional Representative for CIS Countries
Life is full of sounds. They are often in the background, and we simply don't pay attention to them. But the general course is interrupted, and new sounds suddenly enter the consciousness - the sounds of dismay, danger and death. Having spent a day in distressed Bishkek, I learned to distinguish booming claps of exploding cars, clicks of snipers' rifles and hissing sounds of tear-gas cartridges. The sounds of the bloody confrontation between a desperate people and a corrupt government. "Turns out, when a man gets shot, it's not like in the movies," witnesses say. "There's a small sound - ch... - and a man descends to earth." The whole thing is routinely simple, no Hollywood theatricality and staginess. Not even a yell. Still, the fear remains, and this feeling - life was there and then just vanished - holds for days. The images flash before your eyes in silence time and again. A city square, a man, ch...
When Kurmanbek Bakiyev came to power in the forefront of popular dissent in 2005, he criticized the dethroned President Askar Akayev for giving almost all key economic and political posts to his relatives and supporters from the North of Kyrgyzstan. However, months later it became evident that there was no change for the better.
The morning of April 7, 2010
By a confluence of circumstances I came to Kyrgyzstan early in the morning of April 7, when the mass protests in Bishkek leading to the overthrow of the regime began. On the plane with me was an opposition activist Temir Sariyev. He was arrested in the airport. Outside the airport and in the building itself a large group of people gathered, accompanying an ex-foreign minister in Bakiev government and a well-known opposition leader Rosa Otumbaeva. When I entered the arrival lounge, security forces started a rumor that the airport was mined. Their aim was to disperse the crowd. People emptied the building and stood nearby.
All this was preceded by the following events.
On April 1 electricity rates more than doubled, leading to mass frustration in one of the poorest countries in the region. Unemployment in Kyrgyzstan is overwhelming. Industry with the exception of some mining and smelting operations practically doesn't function at all. In a country with a population of five million, one million people went to work in foreign countries, primarily Russia and Kazakhstan. GDP per capita is roughly 800 USD. In the adjoining Kazakhstan GDP per captia is 8,000 USD.
A lot of people whom I talked to told me that all the profitable businesses were forcefully transferred to Bakiyev's clan, in particular to his son, Maxim Bakiyev. The newly-created Central Investment, Innovation and Development Agency was given all the shares of state-owned companies. The Russian acronym for the agency is TZARY, which means 'tzars' - Kyrgyz people didn't hesitate to comment on this fact, saying "Aren't they full of themselves?"
The opposition forces planned to hold a Kurultai (congress) in April 2010. Among the key topics were too high electricity rates, demanding a stop to selling strategic operations to foreign and off-shore companies. Another theme was the abuse of power by the Bakiyev clan.
The poor and unemployed usually have a lot of spare time. People gathered in groups and spoke of their frustration. And the opposition forces skillfully warmed up this frustration and directed it towards an organized critique of Bakiyev regime.
Apparently the authorities managed to gather information about the orchestrated action of the opposition forces. To prevent the opposition Congress, the government began to detain opposition leaders on April 6. Among the first was Bolot Sherniyazov, a leader of the opposition, who was arrested in the morning. This triggered a demonstration in the center of Talas city, leading to the occupation of the local government building. Attempts by Special Forces to disperse the crowd provoked an aggressive response. A rumor started that Bolot Sherniyazov was held in the police station (it was ransacked), and then - in the Talas remand prison (all the prisoners were freed).
The insurgency quickly spread to all regions of Kyrgyzstan. In the morning of April 7 groups of people in Bishkek gathered in front of the government building - a bastion of power and a traditional place of mass protests. Police and Special Forces tried to keep them back, using rubber bullets and tear gas. This only increased aggression. Large crowds with lots of young people began to turn over and light up police vehicles. A lot of police men were beaten and stripped of their shields, helmets and guns.
At the same time President Bakiev said on TV that the authorities dealt with criminals, who would be dispersed and punished. This speech provoked a new wave of anger among the population, largely opposed to the Bakiyev clan.
At noon on April 7 the White House was circled by protesters, and the bloody confrontation began, resulting in 80 people dead and 1,500 injured by official count only. Police and all law enforcement agencies were scattered, and the city plunged into anarchy. When the protesters tried to storm the White House, they were shot with live ammunition. Many of them died or got injuries. News about the government using combat weapons against its own people shook public opinion in favour of the opposition. A rumor spread that snipers on rooftops were mercenaries from other countries - Kyrgyz people wouldn't shoot their own. According to press reports, by the evening of April 7 law enforcement agencies sided with the opposition.
Shots had been fired all night in the main square of Bishkek, until at 3am the White House was captured. By that time the prime minister stepped down and President Bakiev somehow disappeared. Later it was revealed that he flew to his home town of Dzhelalabad, hoping to secure the support of the Southern regions.
By the morning of April 8 a temporary government of confidence was formed, headed by Rosa Otumbaeva. However some common people voiced their anger, stating that all the opposition leaders are former high-ranking officials in Bakiev government and there could be no confidence in them.
In the first hours of its rule the new government didn't have real power. The country didn't have the administration; its capital was in the hands of protesters and uncontrollable crowds of looters. According to press reports, during the night of April 7 about 30 buildings, mostly shops and malls were looted and set afire. Also the prosecutor's office and the tax inspection were burned to the ground, which attests to the fact that the organized crime used the popular protest to destroy all the evidence of its actions.
In the morning of April 8 crowds of people marched to the Bishkek neighborhoods where the ruling elite lived. The house of President Bakiyev was looted and burned. A news report on TV stated that unknown persons gave out guns near a wool factory. Driving through Bishkek I saw four big buses without plates behind the house of Bakiyev. Totally inadequate (drunk or stoned) young men left the buses in groups of three or four to attack and rob people in the adjoining neighborhoods. Furthermore, in the whole city no one in a police uniform could be spotted, because there'd been attacks on policemen, who were admitted to Bishkek and Talas hospitals.
On the initiative of the Employers' Association volunteer squads were formed on April 8. Despite this in the evening of April 8 there were shoot-outs in some parts of Bishkek. Crowds of looters continued to ransack shops. The newly-appointed minister of internal affairs threatened that an order would be given to shoot the looters. That didn't work, and the police and volunteer squads actually had to use weapons.
The temporary government led by Rosa Otunbaeva promised to restore the old electricity rates and review the results of the privatization of strategic companies. After the new government was formed, the Parliament was dissolved. Ministry of defense and border troops affirmed their support of the temporary government. However, since the Parliament was dissolved, the impeachment of Bakiyev and his removal from power by legal means became impossible.
Situation in the unions
The unions didn't take part in the protests. Since the Federation of Trade Unions (FTU) building is just 15 meters away from the fence of the White House, round-the-clock security protection was organized by the unions. In the night of April 7 large groups of protesters tried to storm the building several times, the front door was even broken down. However union leaders managed to persuade the attackers not to smash up the union building.
Current FTU president Ryskulov was elected in 2009 under pressure from the President's administration, leading to the severance of relations between FTU and the International Trade Union Confederation (ITUC). The new president was not respected by the leaders of industry unions. A union congress was due in June 2010, and Ryskulov seemed to have no chances of winning the election.
During the night of April 8 a group of unknown armed people entered the Ryskulov office, and after a 40 minute conversation behind closed doors (none of the trade union leaders were allowed to come into the office) Ryskulov signed a letter of resignation saying that as the Bakiyev protégée he has no moral right to continue to be in the post of President of FTUK. Trade union leaders said that they are ready to witness in court that this letter was written under pressure and asked Ryskulov to inform them about it. However Ryskulov said that it is his voluntary decision.
According to the FTUK Rules Ryskul Babayeva, First deputy of the FTUK President, became acting FTUK President. The FTUK Presidium was planned for April 12 to consider the Ryskulov resignation. However Ryskulov called off his letter of resignation saying that it was written under pressure. The Presidium decided to postpone making a decision on Ryskulov until he recovered.
There are intrigues inside the FTUK. Leaders of 12 branch unions secretly met on April 10 and decided to offer the candidature of Asilbek Toktogulov, President of Education Union, for the FTUK presidential elections. One of reasons of such haste of the union leaders is that they are afraid the new government may interfere into the internal affairs of trade unions.
The FTUK Presidium has decided to set up a fund for supporting families of those who were killed near the White House. It also set up a fund to support the activities of the Federation of trade unions of Talas city as its building was totally robbed and burned down.
The geopolitics of Kyrgyzstan
At present the geopolitical interests of the U.S. and Russia in Central Asia is unfolding in Kyrgyzstan. Vice-Premier of the Interim government already flew to Moscow for a meeting with Russian Premier Vladimir Putin. Rosa Otumbaeva, Chairperson of the Interim government also spoke with Putin by phone. In fact it means recognition of new Kyrgyzstan government by Russia.
On April 6 the U.S. Embassy in Kyrgyzstan published its press release in which it appealed to political forces in the country (first of all to President Bakiyev) to start a dialogue among themselves in the name of declining social tension. Initially the U.S. was insisting on recognition of Bakiyev as elected President. Later, Hillary Clinton had a telephone conversation with Roza Otumbaeva who confirmed that the new government will be responsible for all international agreements signed by the previous government.
After the tulip revolution Askar Akayev, Ex-President of Kyrgyzstan got his political asylum in Russia. President Bakiyev has no such chance as he, as for some reasons his good relations with Russia have been undermined.
It is well known that Russian and American military bases are situated nearby in Bishkek. The U.S. base was set up after the events September 11, 2001 to control the situation in Afghanistan. A contract for keeping the U.S. base should expire soon, and President Bakiyev succeeded to get $300 millon loan from Russia with the condition that the contract with the U.S. will not be prolonged. Bakiyev promised it. Nevertheless he signed a contract with the U.S. about prolonging the stay of the U.S. base in Kyrgyzstan. The only change was that this base was named "transit" but it did not mean anything real. It led to worsening Russian-Kyrgyzstan relations. Tension within Kyrgyzstan was growing as nobody knew how Maxim Bakiyev, son of President, used the $3 million received from Russia.
According to some current information yet another tense fact is the close relationship of Bakiyev with the disgraced Russian oligarch Boris Berezovsky who had to flee from the Russian prosecution to London. Considering the circumstances one cannot totally exclude the possibility of President Bakiyev taking refuge in the United Kingdom if he finally decides to leave the country.
The public opinion in the country is inclined towards establishing closer relations with Russia while the anti-American sentiments are quite strong in the society. It has to be noted though that this does not affect rank-and-file American citizens and many tourists from the U.S. and other countries. The Kyrgyz people in the mass are quite hospitable and welcome foreign guests if they do not try dictating political or economic terms.
Refusal by Bakiyev to resign and his call for the population in the south of Kyrgyzstan to form a people's army to support the legitimately elected President causes a threat of civil war in Kyrgyzstan. The voluntary resignation of the President could have helped avoid this threat, but the President said he was not going to resign. The initiative by President Kurmanbek Bakiyev to request for the United Nations to introduce its peacekeeping forces in the country is undertaken with the one goal of protecting his life. Besides, this may contribute to strengthening the U.S.'s position in the region and retaining in Kyrgyzstan of the U.S. air force base located in immediate proximity to the Afghanistan border. The Interim Government's Deputy Prime Minister Omurbek Tekebayev, in his turn, believes that peacekeeping forces could be instrumental, but he would rather prefer to have the Russian military perform this function.
The immediate prospects of Kyrgyzstan
Without any external financial support the new government can not last long. The national industry is practically at a standstill. The mass unrest, accompanied with looting and robbery, has ruined the small business infrastructure in a country where small business was the main source of tax revenue and guaranteed many jobs in trade and services.
The decision by the government to lower the utility bills and get the electricity rates back to their March level, i.e. lowered by 2.3 times was welcomed by the people and they even applauded this decision. However, this also implies lower tax receipts.
The Tax Inspection's and General Prosecutor's offices have been completely burnt to ashes. This means that delinquent taxpayers will never pay their tax debts to the budget. Moreover, in the near future the criminogenic situation is going to become aggravated in the country and the CIS region, first of all, in Russia, since many criminal files have been destroyed and criminals from a number of prisons have been let out during the riots.
According to some information sources, the scope of financial aid requested by the Kyrgyzstan's Interim Government from Russia amounts to $1.7 billion. Meanwhile it remains evident that as long as Bakiyev has not formally resigned and the country faces the threat of a civil war no financial assistance will be provided to the Interim Government, neither by Russia nor from any other country. As for humanitarian aid, it has already been shown on TV that the first flights carrying humanitarian aid arrived from Russia.